A long economic cycle of approximately 50–60 years, identified by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev. Corresponds to the Supercycle degree in Elliott Wave Theory.
Description
The Kondratiev Wave (or K-wave) is a theory of long economic cycles averaging about 50–60 years, described by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s. Elliott incorporated this long cycle into his wave hierarchy, equating it roughly with the Supercycle degree. The K-wave consists of phases of expansion, stagnation, and contraction.
Key Points
- Kondratiev Wave period: approximately 50–60 years
- Corresponds to Elliott’s Supercycle degree
- Phases: expansion (spring/summer) → contraction (autumn/winter)
- Supported by historical data on commodity prices, interest rates, and economic output
- Elliott used the K-wave as evidence of the natural wave structure extending to the economic cycle
